Is electric car really rubbish? First talk about the challenges of pure electric vehicles

Lei Feng Network (search "Lei Feng Network" public concern) : Author of this article Zhu Yulong, automotive industry engineers. Special Topic: "New Driving Say: Autopilot Those Things | Zhu Yulong"

On the weekend, "Why do I say that electric cars are rubbish" came out and the electric car's buddies exploded. "Uncle of Roots" gave everyone a shot:

In the final analysis, the current emergence of pure electric vehicles in China is not for the sake of consumers. In most cases, these purely electric vehicles are purely a tool for defrauding subsidies and are purely a guise. It is not important whether quality is good or not. Quality is not reliable or important. The important thing is to be able to enjoy the dividends of the policy. This bonus, after eating a wave, I did not intend to stay forever.

This statement is very important, and the Tucao inside is very direct:

Filtering out the sensational part of the article, as well as the unprofessional discussion of clean energy, this article does raise the issues currently faced by electric cars. These issues are all true experiences and feelings from the perspective of consumers:

1) A large range of fraudulent supplementation exists to a certain extent;

2) The domestic vehicle research and development, from the fuel version of the chassis system, to the pure electric vehicle chassis, power system, its optimization and calibration are questioned;

3) The cruising range of the electric vehicle is not enough, so that the owner is not willing to try it out at all, especially in long-distance travel applications;

4) The cruising range of electric vehicles is exaggerated, and the actual experience and propaganda figures are different: the use of heating and air conditioning results in a significant reduction in cruising mileage, and the low temperature in winter has a greater impact on the reduction of available battery capacity. ;

5) There is a sense of mileage anxiety in the use of electric vehicles, and there is a sense of distrust in the existing remaining mileage and SOC;

6) The charging speed is relatively slow, which affects the vehicle's usability.

7) The depreciation rate of electric vehicles is high;

8) Dealing with used cars is more difficult and tied with license plates;

9) There are many problems with the quality of electric vehicles;

10) Security is questioned.

Each of the above questions can be individually described in an article.

My overall view is that there is no need to be so pessimistic about the prospects of electric vehicles . As an engineer, we can discuss the current situation in detail and propose solutions so that consumers can increase their trust in electric vehicles.

This article only talks about my personal overall view of the future of electric vehicles.

Without policy support, pure electric vehicles are difficult to popularize and promote in a wider range. In simple terms, if there is no subsidy or no policy, there will be no incentive for change.

The following figure shows the stock of electric vehicles in the world for the past five years. It can be seen that:

From the end of 2010, vehicles with plug-ins appeared.

Full-scale calculation, formal project engineering is more than 5 years (reserve technology is not)

The development of the battery industry made by Bloomberg and the analysis of battery price data

From 2012 to now, in fact, everyone could not imagine that the current price can be as low as this (2 blocks/WH). Let's assume that if we take China out, neither the above figure nor the following figure will change too much. The difference is whether China has kept up.

Therefore, the current subsidy policy is necessary. The burning of this money has made China's electric vehicle industry related industry chain has made great progress. The effectiveness of subsidy here, and the punishment of various ways of exploiting subsidy loopholes for personal gain, need further treatment.

The only difference between the major developed countries in the world and the subsidy for electric vehicles is that we are developing countries and we expect to use subsidies from electric vehicles to burn out an industry. These goals are different from those of these countries.

From a global point of view, the investment in the development of a pure electric passenger car is huge. Every car company is also trying to do some model attempts. After all, pure electricity needs many challenges to be overcome. It is difficult to achieve a good balance between input and output. . This is a fact and it is also a challenge faced by domestic auto makers.

The figure below shows the models sold abroad. It can be seen that because of the high cost of R&D, each manufacturer will also have 1-2 models. The domestic situation is similar, except for a few manufacturers, the actual number of models sold is not many. For a car company that is really trying hard to try a pure electric car, the subsidy is really not a trick. Without subsidy, the price of a pure electric car is hard for ordinary consumers to bear.

Looking from a period of time in the future, there will only be three household electric passenger cars (200 miles and about 3.5 W dollars) in the future. If you account for such a mileage and price range, the BP of the project will not be particularly attractive.

In other words, subsidies are needed to continue to allow ordinary consumers to take up pure electric vehicles . What needs to be done here is more about improving the technical details of pure electric vehicles.

The DC charging standard for electric vehicles has experienced some twists and turns until July 1, 2016, and it is still being revised.

The NDRC deliberately allocated funds to upgrade the charging equipment. The old charging facilities gradually upgraded to the new national standard, requiring car companies to upgrade and recharge their charging parts. As can be seen in the figure below, for the strategic planning of the national electric vehicle charging facility:

Private investment charging facilities need this market to continue to grow

Depots lack sufficient motivation to invest in charging facilities

The investment of the relevant companies of the State Grid is similar to the public interest. The power transformation of the power distribution in the cities is very expensive.

Development and Reform Commission's Strategic Plan for National Charging Facilities

Wanting to do a good job of recharging and relieving the anxiety of the taxi is now mainly done from two aspects : charging at home and recharging at work .

This current situation does indeed limit the application scenarios of electric vehicles, either for commuters who drive to or from work, or for heavy operations.

This problem, on the one hand, is to install more batteries. Now the new-generation iterative battery has climbed from about 20kwh to about 45kwh. To 2 yuan/Wh, you can see how much money you need.

The battery occupies too much of the cost of pure electricity, and you can only do luxury cars when you are big.

Calculating the SOC by itself and calculating the cruising range require engineering accumulation. This problem involves the thermal management system of the battery system, the design of the module, and the battery management system. It cannot be solved by an algorithm.

The thermal management system needs to be optimized, and the characteristics of the PTC/heat pump and the electric compressor need to be optimized in order to reduce the energy consumed by the comfort system.

In terms of this issue, we need to do engineering time to accumulate experience and iterative optimization.

In this respect alone, it is necessary to retrieve the IPTV data of the vehicle. The number of vehicles implemented in the vehicle is also relatively small, and it is difficult to have a relatively objective comparison. Depreciation requires a systematic evaluation of the timing of the use of major core components and the impact of the entire vehicle.

Finally, the issue of safety, the 100-member conference has been listed as the next phase, and electric vehicles need to be resolved.

I believe that most practitioners, including the first time I saw "Why do I say that electric cars are rubbish," will feel angry and think that the authors do not understand. More and more unclear viewers around us are eager to explain, and even smoke (Lei Feng Wang note: oh, headmaster's married woman ~ ~) have come to ask me how to evaluate.

Objectively speaking, although this language is difficult to hear, there are also one-sided places, but this article is based on the author's car sales experience in the 4S store, from the consumer's perspective. We also need to ask ourselves if we do electric cars: Without licenses, can these cars really sell?

It is also particularly important that the pursuit of deliberate growth rates and scales does not make much sense. Pure electric vehicles are not yet mature enough to easily give up support. In other words, they are not free to do anything.

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