Selecting low-speed electric vehicles with low technical requirements and low barriers to entry as a breakthrough may be a shortcut for Chinese auto industry to realize cornering overtaking.
“In China, we need to be the leader in the electric vehicle market.” On November 6, Ni Kuaiming, president and CEO of Volkswagen China, who had been in charge of the new product for more than a month, opened the public's hand. With technical advantages, Volkswagen is ready to once again stir the Chinese electric vehicle market as it did in the traditional automotive field.
Coincidentally, at the 25th World Electric Vehicle Conference held in Shenzhen, the scale of the participating companies was unprecedented—from the main engine plant to the parts suppliers, from the infrastructure providers to the car rental companies that started a new business model, and from the industry. From the association to the scientific research institute—Shenzhen University’s Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center, there are flashes of companies in every aspect of the electric vehicle industry chain.
At the meeting, the debate on the development prospects of electric vehicles has reached a level of enthusiasm. Among them, "the judgment of the gap between the technological strength of China's new energy vehicles and the developed countries" and "what are the possibilities for the realization of the overtaking strategy for the electric vehicle corners in China? What are the opportunities and challenges?" has become the focus of attention both inside and outside the industry.
Square: “Best Road Overtaking” Opportunity The reason that China attaches so much importance to the development of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, originated from a judgment that in the field of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, we are far from the world level, but in the electric In this new field of vehicles, we are basically on the same starting line with all other countries in the world. If policies and measures are in place, we can achieve “taking over the curve”. Within three years, the number of electric vehicles in China will reach the top in the world, and China will become the “kingdom of electric cars”.
"Because no engine is used, pure electric vehicles are the only Chinese car industry that may be the world's leader," said Chen Qingquan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chairman of the World Electric Vehicle Association. This "doing boss" opportunity includes the development and manufacturing of electric buses. At present, there are 75 million vehicles in China, of which 400,000 buses and buses. The life span of a bus is 8 years. Therefore, 50,000 buses need to be added every year. A conventional bus emits 40 times as much as a private car. A taxi emits six times more than a private car. Therefore, the development of electric buses and taxis will be the national policy for new energy vehicles. Focus.
“As the best opportunity for China’s auto industry to “carry over”, the development of electric vehicles has attracted much attention. Among the three types of electric vehicles in fuel cell vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles have the highest fuel-saving rate. , the least pollution, and the minimum level of foreign technology, it is more in line with China's lack of oil and the development of internal combustion engine technology limitations.” Chen Qingquan believes that according to the existing technical conditions, China is entirely possible outside the development model of the United States and Japan. Another way is to directly transition from traditional fuel vehicles to pure electric vehicles, thereby realizing the development of China's new energy automotive industry in the world.
"After 10 years of hard work, China's electric vehicle industry has entered the stage of industrialization and commercialization from the R&D stage." Minister of Science and Technology Wan Gang believes that China's electric vehicle technology has achieved major breakthroughs in R&D, industrialization, and commercialization. Undoubtedly, being the boss of China's electric vehicles is changing from a distant mirage to the goal of the Chinese auto industry. Compared to the R&D of foreign electric vehicles, China's electric vehicles started later but developed rapidly. The reason is: China has unique national policy advantages, corporate strategic advantages and industrial environment advantages. The development of China's auto brands took only less than 20 years from gasoline, hybrids and electric vehicles. As there was no industrial burden, many detours were lost. This tended to sink into the large-displacement MPV (multi-purpose vehicle) for a long time with traditional auto giants. The status of the high profits of light trucks and light trucks is undoubtedly an advantage. In addition, China’s system has at least a great deal of assistance in the uniform formulation of standards for connectors, power supplies and charging equipment, and its efficiency is significantly higher than that of light trucks. Western countries; As a latecomer country, China has given far-sighted policy guidance to independent brands, which is much earlier than the implementation of policies to increase R&D, taxes, and subsidies for new energy vehicles in Western countries in recent years. Therefore, Wan Gang believes that the speeding development of China's electric vehicles is quite normal.
The famous economist Wu Jinglian said that in the field of electric vehicles, China has great hope to lead the global industry development direction. At present, the development of electric vehicles in China has basically kept pace with the development of the world. If properly grasped, China may change the status of the auto industry rather than strong, and become a real car power. Wang Binggang, head of the National 863 Program Supervision Expert Group on New Energy Vehicle Major Projects, also believes that in terms of the overall technology and industry level, although we are also trying to surpass the traditional automotive sector, the gap with the developed countries remains large. In contrast, in the field of electric vehicles, the gap between us and the developed countries is much smaller, and therefore there is more room for catch-up and we can achieve "curve passing."
Contrarian: Not on the same starting line However, "China's electric cars and the world's giants are not on the same starting line at all." Dong Yang, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, is straightforward. He believes that in the field of electric vehicles, the technology and products of Chinese companies Compared with the traditional car powerhouses in Europe and America, there is still a big gap.
Also holding this view is Chen Quanshi, director of the Automotive Research Institute of Tsinghua University. "Electric vehicle technology is not mature, and the cost is too high. Now there is still a long way to go before large-scale production of electric vehicles." He even questioned, "Electric vehicle industry is in the face of the development of China's automobile industry. Are the opportunities for overtaking on the curve or another chasm?”
First of all, as we all know, batteries, electronic controls, and motors (triple power) are recognized as the three core technologies for electric vehicles. However, in this respect, the gap between China and foreign countries is still very large, such as late investment, small scale, and backward technology. Taking lithium-ion batteries as an example, China is a major producer of lithium-ion power batteries, accounting for about 25% of the global market share, and has a good industrial base. However, in reality, many domestic core technologies and materials such as separators and electrolytes are used. High-purity lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc., has not yet formed an industrialization capability. It still lags behind the international advanced level in certain important performance indicators such as energy density, longevity, and safety. The specific energy of the battery (energy per unit weight) is greatly improved in the short term.
Prior to 2005, Lithium Manganese Oxide batteries with higher specific energy suffered from application bottlenecks due to unsolved high-temperature safety problems. This made the domestic battery industry consider that choosing a safety-enhanced lithium iron phosphate battery could allow China to use power batteries. There is a possibility of cornering overtaking. However, after 5 years passed, the disadvantages of poor product consistency, poor low temperature performance, poor high-rate discharge performance, and high battery production cost have not been significantly improved. In addition, the specific energy of Japanese manganese batteries can reach 100 to 120 watts per kilogram, while lithium iron phosphate batteries only have about 60 watts per kilogram, and it is difficult to further increase, which makes domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries in the world In the competition of mainstream car-powered battery solutions, it gradually revealed signs of failure.
Second, infrastructure construction is a necessary prerequisite for the large-scale application of electric vehicles in the future. Unfortunately, China's current infrastructure, such as charging stations, has not yet begun large-scale construction, and it can even be said that it is only at the initial stage. This led to the slow development of electric vehicles due to the lack of infrastructure, and the lack of expansion of the infrastructure due to the limited number of electric vehicles and poor profitability. China's electric vehicle industry has entered an “endless cycle”.
Again, the high cost of electric vehicles has brought about market difficulties. At present, the price of a pure electric vehicle is almost 2 to 3 times the price of a traditional car. Compared with foreign countries, the current subsidy program that the Chinese government has already formulated is more for group users, such as buses. Although there is a subsidy program for private consumers to purchase, due to the direct subsidy to manufacturers, consumers do not have practical experience, and do not rule out the possibility that consumers enjoy reduced benefits after the operation of the manufacturer.
In light of the three major difficulties in the short-term increase in power battery specific energy, the high cost of electric vehicles, and limited infrastructure such as charging stations, the government hopes that the adoption of new energy vehicles to achieve corner crossings is not realistic. The era of China's electric car did not come.
Changing industry development ideas However, some experts believe that all countries are in the early stages of the development of electric vehicles. Some countries may temporarily lead in certain areas, but the outcome is undivided. At present, Japan is relatively advanced in terms of hybrid technology. Japanese and Korean power batteries are doing better, and Germany is better at electronic control systems, but there is no comprehensive champion yet. China's electric vehicle technology is not leading, but it cannot be rumored to fall behind. In addition, the development of the electric vehicle industry is based on technology, but it is not the only deciding factor. Markets, policies, and infrastructure are equally important. China can rely on a vast market, relying on the support and encouragement of policies, and relying on its own strength to create a suitable electric vehicle that is suitable for the Chinese automobile market.
BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu frankly stated that it is too early to conclude that “China’s electric vehicles have not achieved cornering and overtaking”. As for the saying that “Chinese cars are falling behind in the field of electric vehicles”, he said that he absolutely does not agree.
First of all, in terms of vehicle technology, China has established a hybrid, pure electric, and fuel cell technology platform with independent intellectual property rights and applicable to China's public transport operating model and private car market, and has mastered the integrated technology of the vehicle. Backbone companies have developed serialized products.
Second, in the field of key components, lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and motors have made breakthrough progress. The technical indicators have certain advantages and have formed the world's largest scale of key components for electric vehicles.
Thirdly, in terms of technical standards and testing capabilities, China has issued 35 technical standards and possesses testing capabilities for vehicle batteries, motors, complete vehicles and infrastructure.
Fourth, in terms of basic research, basic research on battery separators, exchange membranes for fuel cells, and lightweight manufacturing are continuing and steadily underway.
In addition, China has also achieved fruitful results in the field of electric vehicle demonstration operations and international cooperation.
In particular, the Chinese government has expressed its great importance and strong support for the electric vehicle industry, and has frequently introduced a number of "real money" policies and measures that contribute to the development of electric vehicles. In early 2009, the State Council promulgated the "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", clearly proposed the implementation of new energy vehicle strategy, promoted the industrialization of electric vehicles and their key components, and arranged subsidies from the central government to support the promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in large and medium-sized cities. . On October 18 this year, the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" was released. The new energy automotive industry was listed as one of the seven strategic emerging industries in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period. The “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2011-2020)” is expected to be implemented at the earliest during the year. In the next 10 years, the central government will use a huge amount of funds of more than 100 billion yuan to support the energy-saving and new energy automotive industry chain. development of. Among them, private purchases of pure electric passenger vehicles with a maximum subsidy of up to 60,000 yuan have already been piloted in 5 cities. This seems to indicate that China has already put the "treasure" of new energy vehicles on electric vehicles.
On the one hand, China’s determination to take the road of electric vehicles has been determined. On the other hand, the gap with the developed countries is still relatively large. The only way is to change the thinking of industrial development. In this session of the World Electric Vehicle Conference, a new concept, low-speed electric vehicle, has become a hot topic for many people. Many experts believe that low-speed electric vehicles are a new idea and a new way for China's electric vehicle industry to realize “turning overtaking”. direction. Based on China's national conditions, we must vigorously develop low-speed electric vehicles. That is, low-speed electric vehicles with low technical requirements, low barriers to entry, and no technical barriers will have huge potential markets and good opportunities for industrial development. There are three reasons. First, from the current economic conditions in China, low-income people have high demand for cheap electric vehicles. If the development of low-speed small electric vehicles, will meet the needs of a considerable part of the Chinese people. Second, China's metropolis has already been seriously traffic jammed. In the future, two-thirds of the automobile market will be in the rural or urban-rural areas. It is estimated that there will be demand for 90 million vehicles. This is the best time for the development of low-speed electric vehicles. Third, the use of electric vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Chinese government is very supportive, ordinary people are also very supportive, so China will certainly take a unique electric vehicle development.
“In short, the industrialization of electric vehicles is a large and complex systematic project. It is necessary to change the thinking of industrial development, choose a low-speed electric vehicle with low technical requirements and low entry barriers as a breakthrough point, and perhaps it is a shortcut to achieve 'turning overtaking'.” An industry veteran said.
